Day 26 – and Iran has not yet lost

About a military power that has been training for this war for 20 years, a world order that is currently being renegotiated – and a ceasefire appeal that Tehran called fake news.

Days 1-25: The script that didn't work out
The plan was well-known. Rapid air superiority and targeted infrastructure strikes were intended to bring Iran to its knees within days. The same playbook used in Iraq in 2003 – with predictable results. Iran had 20 years to read this playbook. And to practice it.

Day 26: What actually happened
The situation on March 25, 2026, can be summarized in one sentence: Iran is escalating, while Trump speaks of progress – and Tehran dismisses every attempt at negotiation as fake news. Point by point:
The US is deploying the 82nd Airborne Division to the region – apparently in preparation for ground operations around Hormuz. Britain announces an international coalition to reopen the strait. B-52 bombers are now also attacking Iranian targets from British soil. Iran responds: waves of missiles and drones against Israel. Direct hits in Tel Aviv. And a warning to the advancing US troops that leaves nothing to the imagination: Come closer.

The myth of invincibility
Tehran has sent an unmistakable message to the world: the myth of US and Israeli invincibility has been shattered. This is propaganda—in part. But it is also an observation based on facts. Twenty-six days of war. B-52 bombers. The 82nd Airborne Division. And Iran is still there. It is firing back. It is hitting its target. It is blockading the Strait of Hormuz—the waterway through which some 20 million barrels of oil flow daily, and which Iran now effectively controls. Some ships are already paying millions for safe passage. Tehran is considering levying transit fees—with potential revenues of up to $80 billion annually. This is not a defeat. This is a business model.

The front line, which widens
What becomes visible on March 25th is the geographical and political expansion of a conflict that no one can fully grasp anymore. For the first time, Israel attacks a Russian-Iranian supply route in the Caspian Sea. This is no longer the Middle East. This is an attempt to disrupt Russia's supply chain to Iran—a move that takes the escalation to a new level. Iraq mobilizes 250,000 paramilitary forces in support. Pro-Iranian forces attack US and Israeli targets in Jordan with drones. Israel plans to mobilize up to 400,000 reservists—and considers occupying southern Lebanon as far as the Litani River as a security zone. Security zone. The word with which every occupation begins that doesn't want to be called that. Israel mobilizes 400,000 reservists. For a war that, according to plan, should be over in three days.

The economy, which is also burning
Shell warns: Europe could face fuel shortages as early as next month. Qatar Energy declares force majeure – global LNG supply chains are faltering. Russia halts fertilizer exports. Fertilizer. The word that never appears in war reports, yet triggers the most dangerous chain reaction. No fertilizer, no harvest. No harvest, no bread. No bread – history shows what happens next. And all this in the middle of planting season.

The cracks in the anti-Western camp
Amidst the escalation, an unexpected shift occurs: China's foreign minister is pushing for negotiations. Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are attempting to organize short-term talks. The first cracks are appearing – not in the Western camp, but in the anti-Western one. China has invested nearly half a trillion dollars in Iran. It watches as its assets are bombed to bits. This eventually creates pressure – even in Beijing. Trump speaks of progress. Of possible deals. Iran dismisses negotiations as fake news and launches another wave of drone strikes. Who is right? Both are lying – with different motives.

What 26 days show
Iran has been systematically training for a potential US ground invasion for over 20 years. This isn't Tehran's claim—it's the logical conclusion of a country that saw what happened in Iraq and Libya and decided: Not with us. Asymmetric warfare. Drones threatening carrier groups. Missiles hitting Tel Aviv. A strait turned into leverage. An economy that functioned under sanctions—because it had to. 26 days of war. And the 82nd Airborne Division has only just arrived.

Trump speaks of progress. Tehran shoots.
And somewhere in Europe, fuel is starting to run low…