Forget nuclear war. What if the real threat was artificial intelligence?

Whenever I think about artificial superintelligence (ASI), I think of this charming dialogue from the classic film Ghostbusters:

Egon Spengler: “Do not cross the rays.”
Peter Venkman: «Why?»
Egon Spengler: “That would be bad.”
Peter Venkman: "I'm not quite sure what's good and what's bad. What do you mean by 'bad'?"
Egon Spengler: “Imagine that all life as you know it would cease instantly and every molecule in your body would explode at the speed of light.”

Speaking of total proton reversal, ASI promises to reshape reality itself.

To truly understand these implications, we must first consult philosopher Nick Bostrom, the intellectual who wrote the book "Superintelligence." Bostrom defines this monumental intelligence as follows: "An intellect that is far more intelligent than the best human brains in virtually all areas, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills." Pretty intelligent, right?

But that's not enough to understand how intelligent we're actually talking about here. To truly understand what ASI will look like, we need to Blog WaitButWhy.com It explains the leap we will make when we move from artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) to artificial general intelligence (AGI) to artificial superintelligence (ASI):

It takes decades for the first AI system to reach a low level of general intelligence, but finally, it happens. A computer is able to understand the world around it as well as a four-year-old human. Suddenly, within an hour of reaching this milestone, the system develops the grand theory of physics that unifies general relativity and quantum mechanics, something no human has ever definitively achieved. Ninety minutes later, the AI ​​has become an ASI, 170,000 times more intelligent than a human.

We can't even begin to comprehend a superintelligence of this magnitude, just as a bumblebee can't understand Keynesian economic theory. In our world, "smart" means an IQ of 130, and "stupid" means an IQ of 85—we don't have a word for an IQ of 12,952.

Even this vivid explanation isn't enough to convey how incredibly intelligent ASI will be compared to humans. Hopefully, this graphic, also from WaitButWhy, does it a better job:

As you can see, this graph represents relative intelligence. But ASI is so incredibly intelligent that it goes far beyond that scale. Think of it this way: Consider the cognitive gap between a single-celled amoeba and the genius Albert Einstein, and you're barely scratching the surface.

Yes, we are talking about this incredible intelligence.

Okay, so what? You might be thinking. Why does this even matter?

It is important for many reasons.

Here's one reason: The world's largest and most profitable organizations are vying to achieve AI. And they're investing huge sums to win this race. "The world's largest technology companies are drastically increasing their capital expenditures to take the lead in artificial intelligence. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are forecast to spend more than $344 billion combined in 2025, mainly on building data centers to support AI models, reports the Japan Times," says MezhaMedia.com.

The Motley Fool considers even this gigantic figure to be an underestimate. "According to a McKinsey analysis, spending on AI infrastructure could reach $6,7 trillion by 2030."

Regardless of the actual investment amount, Meta takes this particularly seriously. Its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, isn't just pouring huge sums into achieving technological intelligence dominance. He's also made it his mission to hire—okay, poach—the best minds in order to outdo his competitors in terms of intelligence.

So contextualized The Verge Zucki's Machiavellian recruitment strategy: "Most headlines so far have focused on the eye-watering compensation packages Zuckerberg offers, some of which reach well into the eight-figure range. As I've reported before, hiring the best AI researchers is like signing a star basketball player: There are very few of them, and you have to dig deep into your pockets. Case in point: Zuckerberg essentially paid 14 Instagrams to poach Alexandr Wang, CEO of Scale AI." But these incredible sums tell only part of the story.

To better appreciate the significance of ASI, it's important to consider that many believe its realization will trigger the so-called Singularity. Ray Kurzweil describes it in his 2005 book "The Singularity Is Near" as follows: "The Singularity is a future period in which the pace of technological change will be so rapid and its effects so profound that human life will be irreversibly altered."

Vernor Vinge puts it even more powerfully in his 1993 book "The Coming Technological Singularity": "Within 30 years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the era of humanity will end." Vinge may be wrong about his timeline, but his understanding of the significance of the ASI should not be underestimated. Here are just a few of the things the ASI could accomplish:

1. Find a cure for every disease.
2. Eliminate death.
3. Create infinite abundance.
4. Revive the past.
5. Unite all knowledge.

Here's another way to recognize the potential of ASI. For years, the world's nations have avoided nuclear apocalypse through Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Essentially, the threat of devastating retaliation has deterred every country on Earth from firing missiles at each other.

ASI is more dangerous than any nuclear arsenal. Why?

Whoever receives ASI first can develop and manufacture any weapon—nuclear or otherwise—and then design intelligent systems to ensure they are forever protected from retaliation.

No wonder the world's largest corporations and their governments are chasing AI. To put our situation in cinematic terms: Just imagine the destruction that would have resulted if the Ghostbusters hadn't been able to stop the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man. That's the kind of power ASI could one day wield.

If that happens, who will you call?

(via The AI Philosopher)